Disaster Scenario

Hey Team.

Housebound. 

Going on week five. 

Month-end has come and gone. Time for quarterly taxes.  Our income is running way below projections right now, just like a lot of you.  And as we sit here, attempting to revise our new monthly budget, there are too many “x” factors to complete even the simplest of formulas.

What we don’t know feels like: everything.

There is no book on how to budget when the world is closed down due to a pandemic, for an unknown number of months, with unknown parameters of how we will get back to “normal” working order again. There is no knowing when our leaders will tell us we can finally reopen our businesses.  What will the new restrictions be? Will the stimulus checks come in time? How long will they last with the current emergency forgiveness parameters? Will we qualify for the small business loans and for how much? How long will it take to get through the application process and actually receive the funds? Do we have to pay it back?  Can we afford to open our doors again? Can we afford to pay our teams? Will the business ever be the same or will we need to adapt to the new economic realities of those who used to be our customers, our partners, our landlords?

In a disaster scenario, when an airplane hits turbulence at emergency levels, and the oxygen masks fall from their escape hatch, we are taught to affix the oxygen to our own person first, before we reach out to help another.  Which makes sense, yes?

While we certainly don’t have all the answers for these turbulent times, we small business owners, (together with our governing officers), are the leaders in our community.  We asked for the leadership role when we asked for customers, vendors, and clients. We asked for it when we hired our first of however-many employees.  

While we are housebound and stressed without knowing where our businesses are going, what will happen to the employees in our care, how we are going to pay back the loans, and if we will be able to make it through all of this to open our doors again… what we need to remember is: that oxygen mask is right there. It is waiting for us.  It is time to put it on, breathe deep, and begin to suss out the damage and fix on a plan. Because we have actually done something almost exactly like this.  For some of us it was just so long ago, we’ve forgotten. When we looked into starting our own business, it all started with lists.  Pros and cons. Debt and Credit. “So you want to start a company? Well, let’s begin to plot out a plan!”  

So back to the beginning we go.  Listing out “ifs” and “thens,” getting our flowchart building brain back into business as Game of Thrones streams for the hundredth time in the background.  You may not have enough information to form a complete budget, but do you have enough to build a play book for the upcoming season?  You’re back in spring training. You need to work out, connect with your teammates, and practice your plays. This is preseason, and you don’t wait to learn the plays on gameday.  

Now is the time.

As daunting as “planning” for an unknown is, we need to begin again somewhere, at some time, and what if “then” is “now?”

1. Ask the hard questions and be prepared to fully disclose what those answers are.  Practice a judgement-free agreement with yourself as you sit down to list or chart.

   1. Does opening your doors again make best business sense financially for your company, your team, your own family?

      1. Is there an operating scenario with only you and your bare-bones team? 

      2. Are there scenarios for remote/part-time/full-time options for your team?

      3. Do you take out a loan or no?  

   2. Does your business follow the same plan/appearance/offering as before?

      1.  Now could be the time to make those changes you have been wanting, but didn’t want to rock the boat.

      2. Has the forcing of remote work or limited staffing opened up new operating options you hadn’t considered before?

      3. How can you better serve your community in the first weeks and months after you are allowed to reopen?

   3. Are there multi-scenario timelines for which you can plan?  

      1. Plans of attack if you open by start of next month. By end of May. Five months out? 

      2. Plans to ease in hours. Do you stay online/remote “x” days per week? Can you condense your hourly appointments to keep operating costs down for a certain length of time?

      3. What does rehiring look like in the case of landing stimulus aid?  How many people across how much time?

For those of you who are overwhelmed by the questions, start here: Artisan Business Solutions offers a free Crisis Calculator to quickly break down your daily financial needs and give you an estimate of how much longer your business can last under a variety of financial scenarios.

We have all learned a lot these past few weeks. Add that education into your future toolkit. This will not be the only physical or economic disaster of our careers, even if it is the most intense. Journal what you’re learning. Keep records of your budget projections vs. reality. 

And if... if the final scenario and best sense answer is NOT to open your doors again, begin your strategy to end this phase of your business venture with integrity. To honor your responsibility, take care of your community as best you can. And soon, hopefully, to start again, with an intact reputation and a clean slate.

What does success look like in this disaster scenario we are living in?

Honesty, integrity, and a plan.